Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1998…1834 crypto 54 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$194 (-42%) realized −$194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%16W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$195
sports 31% $0
crypto 13% $0
world 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -36.5% -42.6% 32% 32% -17.1%
≤30d 33 -36.4% -42.4% 33% 33% -42.5%
≤90d 39 -38.3% -44.1% 33% 33% -68.4%
all 46 -34.4% -40.7% 35% 35% -59.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 35% -59.3%
10% -46.3% 28% -63.2%
15% -51.5% 26% -66.7%
20% -56.3% 22% -70.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses16 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)46 / 54
History coverage102d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner T1 79¢ 88¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+12%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-20%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $30 $0 -1%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $15 +$2 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $13 +$2 +17%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $9 +$5 +50%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $47 −$47 -99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $7 −$2 -28%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $5 +$1 +21%
LoL: Ei Nerd Esports vs Team Solid (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular Apr 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 20 $3 +$3 +87%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $140 −$139 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Mar 20 $10 +$10 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Mar 20 $7 +$3 +42%
US x China Military clash before 2027? Mar 20 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Mar 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 19 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 79¢ $35 7m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $36 27m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 82¢ $29 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 94¢ $30 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 23h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 25¢ $1 23h
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) BUY Team Liquid 27¢ $1 23h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $17 24h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $15 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $15 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $13 25h
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 2d
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 2d
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Egypt 1 - 2 IR Iran? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.65 · official $70.53 (match) · 90 history records