Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:32:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
19 0x1998…be8c crypto 1171 markets active 1h ago coverage 636d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Covers last 635d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,790 (-3%) realized −$2,805 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate71%832W / 335L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$94
14 days+$94
30 days+$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$191
sports 18% −$1,158
politics 14% −$303
world 5% −$215
other 5% −$1,273
tech 1% +$9
economics 0% −$50
finance 0% −$50
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -1.5% -10.9% 76% 41% -1.1%
≤30d 17 -1.5% -10.9% 76% 41% -1.1%
≤90d 866 -5.4% -14.4% 76% 30% -13.0%
all 1167 -5.3% -14.3% 71% 31% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 31% -12.4%
10% -22.5% 17% -20.8%
15% -30.0% 10% -28.5%
20% -36.9% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$40 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

636d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized−$2,805
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses832 / 335
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1167 / 1171
History coverage636d ⚠
Avg bet$86
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 78¢ $50 $65 +$15 (+31%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $31 −$8 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $160 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $46 +$10 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$1 +1%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$12 +21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$45 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 20 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 20 $43 +$13 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 20 $81 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 20 $60 −$8 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 20 $101 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 20 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 20 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 20 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 20 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 20 $110 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 20 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 20 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 20 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 19 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 19 $5 $0 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 19 $100 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 15 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET May 15 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 12 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 12 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $110 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 22h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 97¢ $10 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $10 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $50 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $52 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.01 · official $225.01 (match) · 3492 history records