Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1997…f8bc world 49 markets active 2d ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$1
other 21% $0
politics 15% −$2
crypto 7% +$1
tech 5% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.6% -9.0% 57% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 38% 0% -9.7%
all 49 -1.5% -10.9% 43% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage444d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $32 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $31 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $65 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $37 −$2 -6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 27 $22 $0 -0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 25 $22 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 24 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 24 $22 $0 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $6 $0 -5%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 14 $21 $0 +2%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 10 $43 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $23 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? May 06 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 06 $12 $0 +2%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Apr 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration? Apr 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $3 $0 -0%
More Epstein files released in March? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
Another Trump x Putin talk in March? Mar 29 $4 −$3 -84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $25 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $8 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 84¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $32 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $31 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 90¢ $31 5d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $31 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $8 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $35 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $35 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records