Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:12:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x1997…febc sports 8 markets active 8d ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,142 (+16%) realized +$2,142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,647per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1,986
30 days+$1,998
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$4,060
sports 20% −$2,062
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +18.0% +6.7% 50% 50% +4.7%
≤90d 8 +18.0% +6.7% 50% 50% +4.7%
all 8 +18.0% +6.7% 50% 50% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 50% +4.7%
10% -3.5% 38% -5.4%
15% -12.8% 38% -14.5%
20% -21.3% 12% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,040 vs −$540 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage11d
Avg bet$1,647
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,104 +$595 +19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7,298 +$3,524 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,544 −$2,099 -82%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $64 +$28 +44%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $97 −$58 -60%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $51 −$3 -6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $5 +$13 +232%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $11 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $775 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $10 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $809 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $775 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $16 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,204 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $10 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $794 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $298 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $35 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 83¢ $109 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $33 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $54 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $17 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $28 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $2,094 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $37 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $78 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $15 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $32 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $27 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $49 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $33 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $12 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $22 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $75 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $33 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $30 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 76 history records