Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:53:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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19 0x1997…2e36 crypto 123 markets active 12d ago coverage 112d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$64,755 (-8%) realized −$64,249 · open −$506
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate23%45W / 154L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,301per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Fees−$469est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$32,175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$130,549
sports 29% −$53,326
crypto 18% −$21,476
economics 8% +$259
other 6% −$7,315
politics 2% +$1,224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 -77.3% -79.4% 1% 1% -99.9%
≤30d 108 -65.3% -68.6% 11% 8% -64.3%
≤90d 132 -44.8% -50.1% 19% 13% -47.4%
all 199 -43.3% -48.7% 23% 17% -45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.7% 17% -45.4%
10% -53.6% 14% -50.6%
15% ← realistic here -58.1% 13% -55.4%
20% -62.2% 12% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$4,900) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -12% → late -74% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
24.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,885 vs −$3,168 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$32,175
Realized−$64,249
Unrealized−$506
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses45 / 154
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$469
Open positions20
Markets (closed)199 / 123
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$6,301
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 64¢ 60¢ $8,477 $8,030 −$447 (-5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 83¢ 94¢ $3,461 $3,927 +$466 (+13%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $2,862 $3,231 +$369 (+13%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 61¢ 62¢ $2,755 $2,816 +$61 (+2%)
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 94¢ $2,197 $2,574 +$377 (+17%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 96¢ $2,335 $2,359 +$23 (+1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 77¢ 100¢ $1,373 $1,782 +$409 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,706 $1,738 +$32 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 100¢ $1,570 $1,679 +$109 (+7%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 36¢ 20¢ $2,237 $1,252 −$984 (-44%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 57¢ 52¢ $736 $678 −$58 (-8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $476 $646 +$170 (+36%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 80¢ 81¢ $458 $462 +$3 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $272 $290 +$17 (+6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 65¢ 94¢ $200 $288 +$88 (+44%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 64¢ 10¢ $1,361 $216 −$1,145 (-84%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $192 $200 +$7 (+4%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-44%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 86¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 89¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 149 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Villanova Wildcats vs. Creighton Bluejays: O/U 144.5 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 29 $658 −$658 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 29 $902 −$902 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 29 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 29 $324 −$324 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $64 −$64 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks: O/U 224.5 Jun 29 $5,994 −$5,994 -100%
76ers vs. Pacers Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 29 $728 −$728 -100%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by June 30? Jun 29 $740 −$740 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 29 $930 −$930 -100%
Spread: Nets (-4.5) Jun 29 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will the DHS shutdown last 30 days or more? Jun 29 $130 −$130 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers Jun 29 $3,200 −$3,200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 29 $10,800 −$10,800 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 29 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 29 $1,091 −$1,091 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5 Jun 29 $1,734 −$1,734 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 29 $712 −$708 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 29 $1 −$1,229 -98141%
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 227.5 Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Mavericks vs. Suns: O/U 227.5 Jun 29 $4,900 −$4,900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $75 −$75 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 29 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $857 −$857 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Jun 29 $249 −$249 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $1,199 −$1,199 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 225.5 Jun 29 $4,903 −$4,903 -100%
Mavericks vs. Nets Jun 29 $4,965 −$4,965 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Jun 29 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $620 −$620 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 229.5 Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Jazz vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5 Jun 29 $181 −$181 -100%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Jun 29 $576 −$576 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $316 −$316 -100%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5 Jun 29 $4,680 −$4,680 -100%
Dallas Open: Taylor Fritz vs Ben Shelton Jun 29 $385 −$385 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5 Jun 29 $5,192 −$5,192 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 29 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $2,260 −$2,260 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 29 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 29 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $2,634 −$2,634 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 2 Jun 29 $762 −$762 -100%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Jun 29 $5,200 −$5,200 -100%
Nuggets vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5 Jun 29 $5,100 −$5,100 -100%
Pacers vs. Knicks Jun 29 $12,130 −$12,130 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $97 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $87 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $292 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $30 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $87 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $150 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $19 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $87 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $14 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $73 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $162 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $87 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $148 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $87 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $414 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $64 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $197 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $64 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $87 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $365 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $180 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 11d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $87 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32,175.06 · official $32,174.90 (match) · 3500 history records