Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:49:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1996…0525 crypto 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$270 (-15%) realized −$260 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%73W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 79% −$361
world 14% +$90
other 5% −$4
sports 1% −$7
politics 1% −$6
tech 0% −$3
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 104 +16.4% +5.3% 45% 42% -18.3%
all 171 +9.0% -1.3% 43% 41% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 41% -24.9%
10% -10.8% 39% -32.1%
15% -19.4% 36% -38.7%
20% -27.3% 32% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$260
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses73 / 98
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions18
Markets (closed)171 / 189
History coverage94d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-57%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+103%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+42%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+40%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? No 69¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+27%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 13¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? No 27¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 49¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Yes 36¢ 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning May 23 $1 +$2 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 01 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Trump say "Elephant" in May? May 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump say "Tiger" in May? May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Bird" in May? May 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? May 01 $1 $0 +49%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? May 01 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit? May 01 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +128%
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? May 01 $1 +$2 +171%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April? May 01 $1 +$2 +223%
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? May 01 $1 +$2 +245%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $1 +$8 +809%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $1 +$12 +1150%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 01 $1 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 01 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Trump say "Beautiful" or "Wonderful" 12+ times during WHCA Dinner May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Waste" or "Fraud" 2+ times during WHCA Dinner events? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during WHCA Dinner events? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Space" or "Moon" during WHCA Dinner events? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during WHCA Dinner ev May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Soleimani" during WHCA Dinner events? May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Winston" or "Churchill" during King Charles visit? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 27 $6 −$3 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 24 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 24 $2 +$3 +148%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$3 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 23 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 23 $4 +$3 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 23 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 22 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 22 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 22 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 22 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 22 $2 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $37 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 45d
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 57d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 57d
Will Trump say "Elephant" in May? BUY No 66¢ $1 57d
Will Trump say "Tiger" in May? BUY No 43¢ $1 57d
Will Trump say "Bird" in May? BUY No 61¢ $1 57d
Will Trump say "Cat" in May? BUY No 67¢ $1 57d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? SELL No $1 57d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? BUY No $1 57d
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? BUY Yes $1 60d
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 60d
Will Trump say "NATO" during King Charles visit? BUY No 36¢ $1 60d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 60d
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1 61d
Will Trump say "Immigration" or "Immigrant" during King Charles visit? BUY No 52¢ $1 61d
Will Trump say "Iran" during King Charles visit? BUY No 29¢ $1 61d
Will Trump say "Winston" or "Churchill" during King Charles visit? BUY No 54¢ $1 61d
Will Trump say "Hottest" during King Charles visit? BUY No 47¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 61d
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Canadiens vs. Lightning BUY Habs 38¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $3 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.44 · official $89.45 (match) · 474 history records