Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1994…f824 other 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$406 (-7%) realized −$318 · open −$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate45%52W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day84.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$83
other 21% −$87
sports 13% −$134
world 0% −$4
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 29% -10.5%
≤30d 115 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 29% -10.5%
≤90d 115 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 29% -10.5%
all 115 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 29% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 29% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 21% -19.0%
15% -27.7% 16% -26.9%
20% -34.8% 15% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$19 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized−$318
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses52 / 63
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions38
Markets (closed)115 / 153
History coverage4d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day84.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 73¢ 72¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? Yes 45¢ 32¢ $122 $86 −$36 (-29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 71¢ 29¢ $83 $34 −$49 (-59%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 52¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 21¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+48%)
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 81¢ 77¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 79¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 80¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-37%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 21¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $329 +$21 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $313 +$21 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $365 −$52 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $329 +$168 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $291 +$37 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $182 +$111 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $146 +$36 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $98 +$48 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $340 −$307 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $169 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $220 +$114 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $139 +$82 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $85 +$54 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $71 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $46 +$25 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $3 −$2 -52%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 $0 +4%
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $32 +$5 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 27 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 27 $28 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$1 +123%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$2 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 -6%
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$9 +836%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $1 +$13 +1193%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 27 $10 $0 -3%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $90 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $134 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $46 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $64 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $85 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $233 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $80 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $72 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $25 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $46 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $187 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $58 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $74 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $244 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $85 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $111 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $114 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $65 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $135 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $48 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $107 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $37 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $313.18 · official $309.56 · 418 history records