Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:12:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x1990…a774
other · 38 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$62
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses16 / 20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage258d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 2 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $61 $61 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 70¢ 36¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $72 −$5 -7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $130 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $88 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $54 $0 +0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Dec 11 $18 +$6 +30%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $37 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 20 $18 $0 +3%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Oct 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 13 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 09 $1 $0 +5%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 07 $19 $0 +1%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 06 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 -3%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 48% −$5
other 17% +$6
politics 13% $0
culture 7% −$8
sports 6% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 89¢ $61 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $2 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $21 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $31 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $72 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $26 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $35 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $65 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $8 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $17 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $40 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $38 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $27 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $18 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $7 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $26 7d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $42 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $16 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $8 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $62 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $3 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $44 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $20 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 5 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 5 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 0% -10.7%
all 36 -1.8% -11.1% 44% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -10.1%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.7%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.70 · official $61.44 (match) · 140 history records