Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x198f…e65f other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized −$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$22
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$23
sports 43% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +32.3% +19.7% 100% 60% +17.8%
≤30d 7 -2.5% -11.8% 71% 43% -13.2%
≤90d 10 -2.1% -11.5% 70% 50% -15.1%
all 10 -2.1% -11.5% 70% 50% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 50% -15.1%
10% -19.9% 50% -23.2%
15% -27.7% 40% -30.6%
20% -34.8% 20% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage38d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$10 +65%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $61 −$23 -37%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $5 +$2 +46%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 62¢ $10 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 77¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $24 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 9d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $30 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 17¢ $4 25d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 26¢ $35 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $7 32d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 50¢ $7 33d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $5 33d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $3 37d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.27 · official $31.27 (match) · 21 history records