Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:27:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x198e…6e90 sports 1159 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1138W / 20L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$9
other 17% +$10
weather 16% +$9
crypto 2% +$1
finance 2% +$1
tech 2% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +0.1% -9.4% 95% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 178 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1158 -0.0% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 1158 -0.0% -9.6% 98% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1138 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1158 / 1159
History coverage84d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $196 Week of June 29 2026? Jun 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $50 $0 -0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC 1 - 2 Chengdu Rongcheng FC? Jun 27 $50 $0 +0%
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Norway vs. France: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena Ostapenko Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 26 $50 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami? Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 $0 +0%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Kristina Mladenovic Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will Hannes Steinbach be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 24 $50 $0 +0%
Arcium FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR - Map 1 Winner Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Hayu Kinoshita vs Viktoriya Tomova Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 27m
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs FOKUS - Map 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 100¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Valorant: Joblife vs Barça eSports - Map 1 Winner BUY Barça eSports 100¢ $50 4h
Valorant: Mandatory vs Beşiktaş Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Mandatory 100¢ $50 4h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 6h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $196 Week of June 29 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 6h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 100¢ $50 23h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian BUY No 100¢ $50 26h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 100¢ $50 27h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 40h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 40h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 100¢ $50 41h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 43h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 45h
Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $50 47h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 100¢ $38 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY OpTic Texas 100¢ $50 2d
Exact Score: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC 1 - 2 Chengdu Rongcheng FC? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT - Map 2 Winner BUY Misa Esports 100¢ $50 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $2 3d
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $28 3d
T20 Blast, Women: Hampshire vs Yorkshire BUY Hampshire 100¢ $20 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. SSG Landers BUY Hanwha Eagles 100¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 2404 history records