Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x198e…ede0 weather 269 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,809 (+31%) realized +$4,817 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate12%68W / 490L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day120.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 28d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,337
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-56.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 331 -75.7% -78.0% 5% 5% -82.4%
≤30d 558 -52.1% -56.7% 12% 11% -38.0%
≤90d 558 -52.1% -56.7% 12% 11% -38.0%
all 558 -52.1% -56.7% 12% 11% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.7% 11% -38.0%
10% ← realistic here -60.8% 11% -43.9%
15% -64.6% 11% -49.3%
20% -68.1% 11% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -52% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -87% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$159 vs −$38 · ×4.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$4,817
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses68 / 490
Open positions4
Markets (closed)558 / 269
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$57
Trades / day120.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 558 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $64 $59 −$4 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 26¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+231%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 492 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 2 Jun 15 $85 −$88 -103%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on October 1 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28? Jun 15 $57 −$52 -90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 9? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on April 25? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 11? Jun 15 $49 −$73 -148%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on November Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on October 26? Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on October 2 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on December Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 2 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 16? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on October 2 Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 2 Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4? Jun 15 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 47-48°F on November Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on November Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 30? Jun 15 $26 −$32 -121%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 8? Jun 15 $7 −$13 -204%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 2 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on October 16 Jun 15 $17 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 7? Jun 15 $0 −$4 -2755%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 1 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 8? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 1 Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on December Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on April 27? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 62°F or higher on November 1 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 46-47°F on November Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on October 1 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on March 18? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 20? Jun 15 $3 −$30 -1167%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on October 3 Jun 15 $10 −$49 -471%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 3 Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 62-63°F on October 1 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 12? Jun 15 $59 −$64 -108%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on October 17 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on October 1 Jun 15 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 18? Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 18? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 1 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 45m
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 49m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 49m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.52 · official $84.52 (match) · 3500 history records