Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
19 0x1987…e630 crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$6,082 (+122%) realized +$6,000 · open +$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%22W / 88L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$356
7 days+$133
14 days−$39
30 days+$5,840
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$5,916
crypto 39% −$224
other 5% +$103
economics 1% −$12
politics 1% −$48
sports 1% +$327
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +138.1% +115.4% 23% 23% +19.1%
≤30d 92 +19.6% +8.2% 17% 17% +118.5%
≤90d 92 +19.6% +8.2% 17% 17% +118.5%
all 110 +14.0% +3.1% 20% 20% +107.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 20% +107.4%
10% -6.7% 20% +87.5%
15% -15.7% 20% +69.4%
20% -24.0% 20% +52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +191% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +170% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early 53.37981541964699% → late -25.378347814161877% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$372 vs −$25 · ×14.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized+$6,000
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses22 / 88
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)110 / 120
History coverage116d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 14¢ 22¢ $121 $196 +$75 (+62%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-60%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)? No 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $80 −$18 -23%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$68 +442%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$40 +262%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $16 +$301 +1842%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$2 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $26 −$26 -99%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $158 −$123 -78%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -63%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $50 −$23 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $197 −$171 -87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $204 −$79 -39%
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? May 29 $10 −$8 -76%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 29 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 28 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 28 $29 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 28 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 28 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 28 $29 −$27 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 28 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 28 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 28 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 28 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 27 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 27 $32 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 27 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 27 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 27 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 27 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 27 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 27 $135 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 23¢ $62 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $80 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $10 8h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $5 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $60 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $102 10h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 11h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 11h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $100 11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 14h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $2 22h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $3 22h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $1 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $60 22h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 23h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 23h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 23h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $302 23h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 23h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 24h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.55 · official $375.55 (match) · 335 history records