Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:59:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1985…4871 crypto 341 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$709 (-6%) realized −$713 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%120W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$7
14 days−$18
30 days−$934
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,376
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -16.3% -24.3% 32% 32% -10.4%
≤30d 229 -8.1% -16.8% 35% 34% -21.1%
≤90d 339 -16.2% -24.2% 35% 34% -23.2%
all 339 -16.2% -24.2% 35% 34% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 34% -23.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 31% -30.5%
15% -38.1% 26% -37.3%
20% -44.1% 23% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$713
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses120 / 219
Open positions1
Markets (closed)339 / 341
History coverage35d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Down 26¢ 36¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $32 +$36 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $47 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$18 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$40 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $57 +$30 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $63 −$20 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$141 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $42 −$34 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $57 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$47 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$19 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $147 −$81 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $68 +$191 +282%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 07 $72 +$27 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 07 $11 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $135 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $62 −$10 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 07 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 07 $31 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 06 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 06 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 06 $73 +$60 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 06 $83 +$42 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 06 $16 +$19 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 06 $125 −$120 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 06 $42 +$36 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $42 +$17 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 06 $155 −$82 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 06 $52 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 06 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 06 $73 −$70 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $33 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $43 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $14 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $14 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $17 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $7 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $16 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.93 · official $5.61 · 1095 history records