Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
19 0x1980…5eda politics 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,134 (-1%) realized −$1,134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%19W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$683per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$542now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$14
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$43
other 37% −$50
sports 10% −$1,062
culture 3% −$2
world 2% +$17
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 76 -12.2% -20.6% 9% 5% -11.7%
all 116 -3.4% -12.6% 16% 12% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 12% -10.8%
10% -21.0% 10% -19.4%
15% -28.6% 7% -27.1%
20% -35.6% 5% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$951) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$542
Realized−$1,134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses19 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage123d
Avg bet$683
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $541 $542 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,509 −$3 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $784 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 07 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $666 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $828 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $801 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 04 $165 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $329 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $262 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $248 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $319 $0 -0%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) May 07 $746 −$746 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $3,214 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,022 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $3,424 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,202 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,465 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,966 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $951 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 17 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $536 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $955 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,494 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $627 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 05 $317 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $325 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $2,553 −$3 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $1,406 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 3h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $541 28h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $744 4d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $745 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $863 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $864 5d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $866 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $904 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $906 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $783 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $784 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $869 11d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $870 11d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $665 12d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $666 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $826 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $828 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $700 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $701 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $826 14d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $828 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $801 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $801 14d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $704 18d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $705 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 22d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $165 29d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $328 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $541.65 · official $541.65 (match) · 384 history records