Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x197d…7e19
crypto · 124 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$146 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$140 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36
Realized−$140
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses57 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)121 / 124
History coverage144d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 3 History 121 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2AM ET Down 31¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$16 -31%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$17 +111%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 −$24 -53%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$14 +94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$60 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 12 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 12 $1 +$5 +519%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 12 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 12 $4 $0 -1%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 2AM ET Apr 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 11 $6 −$5 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 11 $41 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Apr 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 11 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 11 $8 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 11 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 11 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 11 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 11 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Feb 28 $9 −$7 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 28 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 28 $14 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 28 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 28 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 28 $8 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 28 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 28 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 28 $8 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 28 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Feb 28 $3 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 77% −$127
other 18% +$22
finance 2% −$25
sports 1% +$14
world 1% −$15
politics 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 40m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 47m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 54m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 57m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 21h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 26h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $30 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 26h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $91 43h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $27 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +28.0% +15.8% 50% 50% +23.9%
≤30d 6 +28.0% +15.8% 50% 50% +23.9%
≤90d 35 -15.1% -23.2% 40% 40% -6.0%
all 121 -22.7% -30.0% 47% 35% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.0% 35% -22.8%
10% -36.7% 22% -30.2%
15% -42.8% 18% -36.9%
20% -48.4% 11% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.22 · official $36.29 (match) · 433 history records