Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:51:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x197c…b89a other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$132 (-3%) realized −$127 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$100
14 days−$100
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$103
other 36% +$97
politics 3% −$99
world 3% +$1
crypto 3% −$15
tech 1% −$21
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -19.7% -27.3% 50% 17% -15.2%
≤30d 9 +95.7% +77.1% 44% 22% -13.0%
≤90d 16 +29.8% +17.5% 44% 19% -18.4%
all 48 +11.7% +1.1% 42% 21% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 21% -13.3%
10% -8.6% 19% -21.6%
15% -17.4% 12% -29.2%
20% -25.5% 10% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$25 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized−$127
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage181d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 78¢ 76¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $201 +$65 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $300 +$12 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $9 +$1 +10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $1,006 −$142 -14%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$25 -50%
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 03 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 29 $5 +$56 +1080%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 20 $52 −$50 -97%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 20 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 17 $19 +$1 +3%
WTT - Men's Singles: Chuqin Wang vs Sora Matsushima Apr 05 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 25 $10 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Feb 23 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 23 $10 +$4 +40%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Feb 19 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Feb 19 $10 +$55 +554%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jan 22 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 640-659 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 19 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Jan 19 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $144 +$150 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $99 −$5 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $20 −$10 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 10 $90 +$63 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $50 −$3 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 07 $25 +$130 +522%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 30? Dec 30 $143 −$15 -10%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $167 +$8 +4%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $65 +$17 +25%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Dec 30 $9 $0 -4%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 30 $52 −$10 -19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 22? Dec 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 22? Dec 22 $60 −$10 -17%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $312 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $300 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $10 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $101 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $300 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $201 9h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 91¢ $9 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 70¢ $864 16h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 16h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $25 23h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 32h
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 96¢ $99 17d
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 31d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 31d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $52 31d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $52 31d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 7¢ $21 31d
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 98¢ $20 34d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $21 34d
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 40d
WTT - Men's Singles: Chuqin Wang vs Sora Matsushima SELL Wang 99¢ $11 76d
WTT - Men's Singles: Chuqin Wang vs Sora Matsushima BUY Wang 89¢ $10 76d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $2 79d
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $14 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 117d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 117d
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 117d
Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY No 99¢ $10 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.88 · official $494.88 (match) · 154 history records