Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x1974…edc9
politics · 150 markets active 5h ago
1.0score
−$2,125 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,125 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$408
Realized−$2,125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses31 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,199
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 149 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$42
14 days−$50
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $408 $408 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,505 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,585 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $5,388 −$6 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,226 −$6 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $85 +$68 +79%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,469 −$4 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 03 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,002 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $655 +$1 +0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,402 −$4 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,344 −$3 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $95 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,560 −$4 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $2,851 −$4 -0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) May 25 $65 +$63 +97%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $67 +$29 +44%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $1,039 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,034 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $2,600 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 21 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 10 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 09 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 09 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $4,401 −$5 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $5,071 −$6 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $2,053 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,552 −$2 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $5,964 −$6 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,519 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $4,782 −$6 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 05 $3,099 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $2,512 −$3 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1,411 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $399 −$1 -0%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 29 $1,128 −$1,128 -100%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $1,255 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% +$114
politics 41% −$91
sports 9% −$2,020
economics 3% −$6
tech 2% −$4
crypto 1% −$1
world 1% −$115
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $408 5h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,400 2d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,402 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,073 3d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,074 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $708 3d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $709 3d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,038 4d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,040 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $905 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $906 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,290 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,292 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,034 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,035 5d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,507 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,510 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $85 8d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,358 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,360 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,246 9d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,248 9d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,467 10d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,469 10d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,344 10d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $73 10d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,346 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $831 11d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $832 11d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +8.7% -1.7% 11% 11% -9.3%
≤30d 29 +4.0% -5.9% 17% 10% -9.5%
≤90d 97 -6.0% -15.0% 8% 4% -11.1%
all 149 +5.1% -4.9% 21% 15% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 15% -10.6%
10% -14.0% 14% -19.2%
15% -22.3% 13% -27.0%
20% -30.0% 11% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $407.60 · official $407.60 (match) · 466 history records