Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1972…8d90 world 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% −$7
other 26% −$28
politics 6% +$19
finance 4% +$1
sports 0% $0
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 7% -10.8%
≤90d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 5% -10.3%
all 34 +10.8% +0.3% 56% 9% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 9% -10.2%
10% -9.3% 9% -18.8%
15% -18.1% 6% -26.7%
20% -26.1% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage477d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $40 $0 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $53 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $76 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $48 −$13 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $46 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $69 −$3 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $34 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $3 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $88 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $30 +$7 +22%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $32 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $36 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $23 +$1 +4%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $47 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 18 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $2 +$8 +316%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 06 $1 $0 -12%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $12 +$19 +151%
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30? May 31 $12 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 30 $3 $0 +1%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? May 29 $9 $0 -0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30? May 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 27 $12 $0 +4%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 28 $15 $0 -3%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 19 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 22h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $40 26h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $37 33h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $37 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $1 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $24 46h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $25 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $0 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $0 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $3 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $33 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $31 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 67¢ $1 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 71¢ $35 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $35 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $23 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $12 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $34 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 40¢ $26 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 121 history records