Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:14:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

19 0x196f…b9aa sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$112 (-5%) realized −$108 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip

Net edge+6%after slip

Net WR62%break-even

Win rate67%14W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$87per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$228

7 days+$228

14 days+$228

30 days+$105

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +62%

net ROI/market (all)+5.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+312.5%	+273.2%	100%	100%	+273.2%
≤30d	21	+17.0%	+5.9%	67%	62%	-4.1%
≤90d	21	+17.0%	+5.9%	67%	62%	-4.1%
all	21	+17.0%	+5.9%	67%	62%	-4.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.9%	62%	-4.1%
10%	-4.2%	57%	-13.2%
15%	-13.5%	57%	-21.6%
20%	-22.0%	38%	-29.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +13% → late +21% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$55 vs −$95 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.16 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage

Net worth$146

Realized−$108

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses14 / 7

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 24

History coverage18d

Avg bet$87

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	Netherlands	59¢	57¢	$150	$146	−$4 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 29	$73	+$228	+312%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$130	−$128	-99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$131	−$130	-99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	Jun 15	$101	+$58	+57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$70	+$65	+93%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$99	+$39	+40%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$52	−$51	-98%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 14	$49	+$5	+10%
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	Jun 14	$71	+$27	+38%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners	Jun 14	$66	+$53	+81%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$68	−$67	-98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$86	+$49	+57%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Jun 14	$119	+$24	+20%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	Jun 13	$58	−$57	-98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$127	−$126	-100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$51	+$65	+129%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	Jun 13	$51	+$28	+56%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$106	+$46	+44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$105	−$104	-99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 12	$66	+$53	+80%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$66	+$27	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance	BUY Netherlands	59¢	$152	1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY	24¢	$73	10h
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: Both T	BUY	18¢	$100	2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan	BUY	32¢	$90	2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$130	14d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$131	14d
Spread: Spain (-3.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	63¢	$101	14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$70	15d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	71¢	$99	15d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	45¢	$52	15d
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	91¢	$49	15d
Spread: Germany (-2.5)	BUY Germany	72¢	$71	15d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 5.5 Corners	BUY Over	55¢	$66	15d
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	35¢	$68	15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$134	15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$86	16d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5)	BUY Scotland	40¢	$58	16d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	SELL Morocco	68¢	$58	16d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	69¢	$119	16d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	82¢	$127	16d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$51	17d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	63¢	$51	17d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	62¢	$105	17d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	69¢	$106	17d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	55¢	$66	18d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$66	18d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.19 · official $146.19 (match) · 39 history records