Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:51:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x196d…9688
crypto · 826 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$43 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$152 · open −$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$139
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses534 / 263
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)797 / 826
History coverage18d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day72.2
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 29 History 797 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$12
14 days−$51
30 days+$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election? Yes 68¢ 86¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Yes 29¢ 41¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 72¢ 95¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? No 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 68¢ 55¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 84¢ 60¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 75¢ 99¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June? No 86¢ 56¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-35%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? No 72¢ 45¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-37%)
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 98¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+29%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 8¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Megaquake by June 30? Yes 51¢ 6¢ $19 $2 −$17 (-89%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Yes 19¢ 7¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 77¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-38%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 40¢ 8¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 70¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Federico Valverde score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +3%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +83%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +39%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 47% −$15
other 20% −$60
world 18% +$234
weather 9% −$39
politics 5% +$1
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 2m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 13m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 13m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 18m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 27m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 32m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 33m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $4 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 52m
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 467 -5.2% -14.2% 70% 47% -8.5%
≤30d 797 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 49% -3.7%
≤90d 797 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 49% -3.7%
all 797 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 49% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 49% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 32% -12.9%
15% -28.5% 18% -21.3%
20% -35.5% 12% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.21 · official $140.24 (match) · 1798 history records