Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x196b…01a5 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 51d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$36 (+14%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +296% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +258% what you keep after slip
Net edge+258%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% $0
tech 47% −$5
crypto 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+257.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.8% -13.0% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 1 -3.8% -13.0% 0% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 3 +295.5% +257.8% 67% 33% -0.0%
all 3 +295.5% +257.8% 67% 33% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +257.8% 33% -0.0%
10% +223.6% 33% -9.6%
15% +192.3% 33% -18.3%
20% +163.7% 33% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +295% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$5 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.17 per $1 lost it wins $4.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage51d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $112 $112 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $120 −$5 -4%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $17 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $2 +$19 +888%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $115 1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $116 1h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $120 39h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 98¢ $17 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.70 · official $111.70 (match) · 7 history records