Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x1963…dd0c
other · 82 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$29,370 +38%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$31,286 · open −$1,916
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$7,031
Realized+$31,286
Unrealized−$1,916
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses10 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions58
Markets (closed)25 / 82
History coverage110d
Avg bet$949
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 58 History 25 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,897
7 days−$5,897
14 days−$5,897
30 days−$5,911
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 100¢ $1,527 $3,134 +$1,607 (+105%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 24¢ $1,460 $611 −$849 (-58%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $476 $486 +$10 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 20¢ 46¢ $184 $429 +$245 (+133%)
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 100¢ $53 $410 +$357 (+673%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $218 $218 −$0 (-0%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 100¢ $53 $187 +$134 (+250%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $138 $141 +$2 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $125 $125 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $122 $122 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $90 $103 +$13 (+15%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $82 $80 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $87 $79 −$8 (-9%)
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 68¢ 68¢ $77 $77 −$1 (-1%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $75 $70 −$5 (-7%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $59 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $57 $56 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $52 $47 −$5 (-10%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $42 $39 −$3 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Jun 13 $0 −$6,422 -5633012%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,550 +$1,607 +104%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $150 −$147 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $55 +$134 +245%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,094 −$1,078 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $161 −$158 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $97 −$97 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $398 +$651 +164%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $919 +$385 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $501 −$501 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 29 $5 −$4 -97%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 08 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 08 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 08 $5 +$2 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 30? Apr 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 02 $5,660 +$110 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 02 $27,696 +$26,792 +97%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 02 $15,149 +$6,423 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Mar 02 $2,652 +$7,483 +282%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 27 $15,755 −$3,613 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% +$40,810
finance 20% −$3,613
other 13% −$1,690
sports 1% +$285
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 16m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 17m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 26m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 26m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 28m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 29m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 32m
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 68¢ $6 32m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 33m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 40m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 43m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 43m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $84 43m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 43m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $6 45m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $9 45m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $38 51m
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 51m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $9 52m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $47 52m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $52 54m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 55m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 56m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -19.9% -27.5% 33% 33% -0.3%
≤30d 15 -35.9% -42.0% 27% 27% -0.6%
≤90d 20 -26.9% -33.9% 30% 30% -0.6%
all 25 -5.5% -14.5% 40% 36% +37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 36% +37.8%
10% -22.7% 36% +24.6%
15% ← realistic here -30.2% 32% +12.6%
20% -37.0% 24% +1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,031.22 · official $7,031.50 (match) · 3500 history records