Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:02:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1962…7ee7 world 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate37%28W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$2
other 25% +$5
sports 23% −$14
politics 14% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.4% -9.9% 26% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 68 +1.6% -8.1% 37% 3% -9.6%
all 75 -3.2% -12.4% 37% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 7% -9.9%
10% -20.8% 1% -18.5%
15% -28.4% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.4% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses28 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage524d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 78¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $97 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $67 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $12 −$1 -5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $23 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $106 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $36 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $38 −$2 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $1 $0 +10%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $33 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $67 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $144 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $2 $0 +4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $72 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $22 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $4 $0 +6%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $35 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $35 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $33 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $36 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $33 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $33 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $26 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $32 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $17 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $35 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 10d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.59 · official $35.19 (match) · 260 history records