Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1961…43ab politics 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate5%7W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$245per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$18
other 46% −$14
sports 3% −$51
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 117 -2.4% -11.7% 3% 2% -9.7%
all 129 -5.5% -14.5% 5% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 3% -9.8%
10% -22.7% 2% -18.4%
15% -30.2% 2% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses7 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)129 / 129
History coverage114d
Avg bet$245
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 129 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $29 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $212 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $30 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $274 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $208 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $185 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 25 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 24 $389 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $615 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $229 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $397 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $436 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $209 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 17 $165 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $396 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $198 $0 -0%
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $193 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $234 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 11 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $183 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $182 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 06 $231 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in April? May 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $172 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $160 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $209 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $162 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $185 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $356 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $178 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $229 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $223 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $246 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $429 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $179 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $29 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $37 4d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $37 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 9d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 17d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 18d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 18d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $33 18d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $33 18d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 19d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $208 22d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $208 23d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $185 24d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $185 24d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 24d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $187 25d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $187 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $220 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $220 26d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $167 26d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $167 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 397 history records