Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1960…7ac2 crypto 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$121 (+2%) realized +$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%133W / 161L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$0
14 days−$99
30 days−$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$495
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -9.4% -18.0% 48% 48% -9.4%
≤30d 213 -4.2% -13.3% 41% 41% -21.1%
≤90d 294 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 43% -19.6%
all 294 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 43% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 43% -19.6%
10% -20.8% 40% -27.3%
15% -28.5% 33% -34.3%
20% -35.5% 30% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses133 / 161
Open positions0
Markets (closed)294 / 294
History coverage86d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 294 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$12 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$16 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$8 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$32 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$16 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$7 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $37 +$23 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$11 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$5 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +43%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 03 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 03 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 03 $17 −$8 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $16 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 03 $16 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 03 $17 −$16 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$8 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $24 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $8 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $25 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $13 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $23 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $24 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $22 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1099 history records