Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:49:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x195f…8c53 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,050 (+23%) realized +$3,882 · open +$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate63%24W / 14L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$444per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$311est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,460now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,200
7 days+$4,538
14 days+$4,538
30 days+$6,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$4,118
crypto 33% +$489
other 8% +$206
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +38.0% +24.9% 71% 71% +64.3%
≤30d 16 +40.3% +26.9% 69% 69% +62.0%
≤90d 37 +11.8% +1.2% 65% 57% +18.5%
all 38 +8.9% -1.5% 63% 55% +16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 55% +16.4%
10% -10.9% 45% +5.3%
15% -19.5% 37% -4.9%
20% -27.4% 24% -14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$668) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$395 vs −$345 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$1,460
Realized+$3,882
Unrealized+$168
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses24 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$311
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage106d
Avg bet$444
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $1,009 $1,368 +$359 (+36%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $283 $92 −$191 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $169 +$39 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $271 +$36 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $668 +$496 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $527 +$225 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $421 −$405 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $197 −$193 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $770 +$283 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $270 −$266 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $139 +$95 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $342 +$682 +199%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $184 −$175 -95%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $178 +$345 +194%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $124 +$38 +31%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,334 +$3,338 +250%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $1,029 −$1,017 -99%
Counter-Strike: Fake do Biru vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America May 22 $1,266 +$2,683 +212%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapova May 06 $1,574 −$1,562 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 06 $159 −$150 -95%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs UNiTY esports - Map 1 Winner May 06 $449 +$139 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 06 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 06 $310 +$137 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 06 $123 +$127 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 06 $101 −$95 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET May 06 $103 +$91 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 06 $102 +$47 +46%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $1,194 +$257 +22%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 06 $1,095 +$93 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 01 $105 +$11 +10%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $205 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 01 $103 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 01 $103 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 01 $105 −$1 -1%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $879 +$108 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 01 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Parken Challenger Championship Apr 02 $554 −$374 -67%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Rafael Jodar vs Tomas Machac Apr 02 $678 +$95 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 03 $293 −$293 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $364 42m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $35 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $165 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $43 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $139 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $30 48m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $153 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $134 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $657 51m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $153 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $136 52m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $106 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $321 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $139 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $265 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $138 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $579 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $359 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $202 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $140 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $550 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $356 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $358 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $31 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,459.89 · official $1,459.89 (match) · 237 history records