Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:55:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x195d…0a8b
crypto · 50 markets active 1h ago
3.0score
+$713 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$746 · open −$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$32
Realized+$746
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses25 / 23
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)48 / 50
History coverage117d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 48 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,501
7 days+$1,501
14 days+$1,501
30 days+$1,501
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $35 $31 −$3 (-10%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $119 $0 −$119 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $82 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 +$174 +339%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $133 −$16 -12%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $41 −$8 -20%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $102 +$72 +71%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $234 +$168 +72%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $103 +$37 +36%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $152 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $52 +$78 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $77 +$77 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $78 −$70 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $16 +$16 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $253 +$41 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$30 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $53 −$49 -92%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $141 −$4 -3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $295 +$958 +325%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $33 +$118 +360%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $152 +$26 +17%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 15 $508 −$508 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Feb 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Feb 15 $1 +$3 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Feb 15 $40 +$66 +165%
XRP Up or Down - February 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 15 $60 −$50 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 15 $83 −$82 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 15 $376 +$204 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 15 $205 −$138 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 15 $120 −$119 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 15 $20 +$43 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 15 $121 +$129 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 15 $91 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 15 $130 −$129 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 15 $142 +$54 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 15 $46 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 15 $16 −$12 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 15 $25 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$682
other 19% +$1,129
tech 10% +$236
finance 5% +$53
sports 4% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 95¢ $164 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $78 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY No 57¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 9¢ $33 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 16¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 58¢ $101 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 99¢ $42 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 99¢ $132 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 99¢ $351 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 99¢ $51 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 79¢ $50 2h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 5h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 32¢ $77 6h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 34¢ $27 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 46¢ $51 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 57¢ $102 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 44¢ $10 6h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 33¢ $30 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +47.8% +33.7% 62% 62% +48.1%
≤30d 26 +47.8% +33.7% 62% 62% +48.1%
≤90d 26 +47.8% +33.7% 62% 62% +48.1%
all 48 +19.6% +8.2% 52% 48% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.2% 48% +6.1%
10% -2.2% 42% -4.0%
15% -11.6% 42% -13.3%
20% -20.3% 38% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.82 · official $31.82 (match) · 191 history records