Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x195d…446a
crypto · 1132 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,058 -36%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,058 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$1,058
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses932 / 327
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1259 / 1132
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day260.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1259 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$973
7 days−$1,022
14 days−$1,058
30 days−$1,058
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 82¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 78¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 86¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 83¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$97
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 926 -15.7% -23.7% 71% 68% -42.4%
≤30d 1259 -12.2% -20.6% 74% 71% -34.2%
≤90d 1259 -12.2% -20.6% 74% 71% -34.2%
all 1259 -12.2% -20.6% 74% 71% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover260.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.6% 71% -34.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.2% 16% -40.5%
15% -35.1% 0% -46.3%
20% -41.5% 0% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.93 (match) · 3500 history records