Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:00:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x195d…b157
crypto · 1323 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$781 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$784 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8
Realized−$784
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses884 / 438
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1322 / 1323
History coverage15d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day105.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1322 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$707
14 days−$1,027
30 days−$784
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 62¢ 98¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+57%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 84¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$9 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$7 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$4 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$8 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $17 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$7 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$10 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$9 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$5 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$11 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$5 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $13 +$11 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$781
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $13 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $6 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $15 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $8 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 850 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 57% -13.3%
≤30d 1322 -0.7% -10.1% 67% 57% -11.8%
≤90d 1322 -0.7% -10.1% 67% 57% -11.8%
all 1322 -0.7% -10.1% 67% 57% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover105.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 57% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 39% -20.3%
15% -26.6% 28% -28.0%
20% -33.8% 20% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.86 · official $3.67 · 3500 history records