Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x195d…1376 other 105 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate63%53W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$10
world 18% +$3
crypto 11% −$11
finance 10% +$8
economics 7% −$2
culture 6% $0
politics 3% +$8
tech 1% +$2
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +5.4% -4.7% 100% 0% -4.7%
≤30d 11 -2.1% -11.4% 55% 36% -12.9%
≤90d 45 -2.5% -11.8% 64% 22% -10.5%
all 84 -0.3% -9.8% 63% 18% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 18% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 8% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 4% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses53 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions21
Markets (closed)84 / 105
History coverage137d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 51¢ 41¢ $21 $17 −$4 (-20%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 51¢ 20¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 99¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Metamask FDV above $700M one day after launch? No 73¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 81¢ 85¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 79¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+26%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 89¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 17 $21 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 03 $18 −$18 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 03 $18 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 03 $8 +$2 +21%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 03 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 03 $19 +$5 +25%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 03 $37 +$5 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? Jun 03 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 18 $16 +$3 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 18 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 18 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $67 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $26 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 04 $35 $0 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 04 $19 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 04 $35 +$2 +7%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 04 $6 +$2 +38%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? May 04 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 04 $14 +$2 +13%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? May 04 $19 +$1 +7%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 18 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $16 −$6 -39%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $19 +$2 +11%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 01 $72 −$12 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 01 $24 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 01 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Apr 01 $14 $0 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $18 $0 -2%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 31 $15 $0 -1%
Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 28 $35 $0 -0%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 28 $54 +$1 +2%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 28 $20 +$5 +23%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 28 $24 +$4 +19%
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch? Mar 28 $6 $0 +4%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 28 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 19 $23 $0 +0%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $35 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $1 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $43 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $44 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $44 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $45 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 86¢ $45 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $46 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? SELL No 97¢ $8 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? BUY No 89¢ $8 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $21 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $10 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $11 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $9 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $12 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 98¢ $22 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $22 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $22 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.03 · official $58.05 · 400 history records