Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T14:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1958…310b economics 98 markets active 23d ago coverage 707d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,464 (-22%) realized −$11,435 · open −$5,029
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%23W / 62L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$769per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 41% −$11,626
politics 40% −$1,198
crypto 14% −$1,454
finance 2% −$1,683
other 2% +$88
sports 1% −$321
world 1% −$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -98.4% -98.6% 0% 0% -98.6%
≤90d 8 -62.6% -66.1% 0% 0% -82.1%
all 85 -32.3% -38.8% 27% 25% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.8% 25% -24.9%
10% -44.6% 20% -32.1%
15% -50.0% 15% -38.6%
20% -54.9% 12% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$762) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -15% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$398 vs −$333 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

707d coverage
Net worth$2,115
Realized−$11,435
Unrealized−$5,029
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses23 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)85 / 98
History coverage707d
Avg bet$769
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $2,171 $396 −$1,775 (-82%)
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $838 $304 −$534 (-64%)
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $921 $253 −$668 (-73%)
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $419 $221 −$198 (-47%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $752 $213 −$538 (-72%)
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $915 $208 −$706 (-77%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $348 $197 −$151 (-43%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $372 $117 −$255 (-69%)
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $195 $92 −$103 (-53%)
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $50 −$10 (-17%)
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $65 $48 −$17 (-26%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $22 $13 −$9 (-41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 33¢ 1¢ $66 $2 −$64 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $642 −$531 -83%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $4 $0 -7%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 19 $1,026 −$922 -90%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? May 12 $67 −$18 -27%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 08 $716 −$189 -26%
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? May 06 $17 −$7 -42%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? May 04 $611 −$610 -100%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 21 $85 −$85 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meet Mar 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.6% by March 31? Mar 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Mar 19 $1,214 −$1,214 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 19 $2,043 −$2,042 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.8% by March 31? Mar 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 18 $45 −$45 -100%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Mar 18 $1,584 −$1,584 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 16? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $311 −$68 -22%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? Mar 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31? Mar 13 $64 +$336 +525%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? May 10 $76 −$76 -100%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% in April? May 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 10 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Apr 13 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2024? Apr 13 $649 +$337 +52%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after January 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $1,852 −$1,852 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $338 −$338 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $560 −$560 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Apr 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? Dec 28 $121 +$38 +31%
Will there be a US Government shutdown? Dec 21 $284 +$180 +63%
Will Ethereum hit $3,000 in December? Dec 19 $120 +$170 +142%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $4,100.00 in December? Dec 19 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin above $100,000 on December 13? Dec 19 $555 −$555 -100%
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024? Dec 19 $6,328 −$1,516 -24%
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024? Dec 19 $2,804 −$576 -20%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Dec 09 $4,756 −$41 -1%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Dec 09 $762 −$226 -30%
Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? Dec 09 $480 −$480 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 in November? Dec 01 $382 −$382 -100%
Giants vs. Cowboys Nov 30 $134 +$66 +49%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Nov 27 $1,484 +$547 +37%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in November? Nov 20 $115 −$60 -52%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Trump attend Paul vs. Tyson? Nov 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Mike Tyson knockout Jake Paul? Nov 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Mike Tyson bites Jake Paul's ear? Nov 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will any other Democratic Politician win the 2024 US Presidential Elec Nov 07 $1,129 −$867 -77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $23 23d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 23d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $80 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $14 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $10 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 202 BUY Yes 7¢ $23 23d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY Yes 1¢ $8 23d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 2¢ $35 23d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $119 23d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $25 23d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 23d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 23d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $69 23d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $52 23d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $28 23d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $47 23d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $147 23d
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $29 23d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $5 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $5 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 1¢ $0 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,114.75 · official $2,114.75 (match) · 1541 history records