Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:21:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x1957…36d8 weather 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%101W / 4L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$8
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 88% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 42 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 93 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 105 +0.2% -9.3% 96% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×48.94 per $1 lost it wins $48.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses101 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage123d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? Jun 26 $122 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 25 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? Jun 24 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? Jun 22 $121 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $121 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $120 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 94°F or higher on June 16? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $119 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? Jun 11 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? Jun 10 $95 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $117 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? Jun 09 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 06 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 31? Jun 01 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma May 31 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on May 29? May 30 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on May 28? May 29 $107 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 28? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 27? May 27 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 25? May 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 23? May 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 20? May 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 20? May 20 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 17? May 17 $113 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $53 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $122 30h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $122 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $121 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $121 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $121 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $121 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $121 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $121 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $121 7d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $121 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $120 9d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $79 10d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $42 10d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 94°F or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $80 10d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $120 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $101 12d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $119 13d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $119 13d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $119 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $109 15d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $119 16d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $26 17d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $26 18d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $95 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $117 18d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $117 19d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $117 21d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $117 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.