Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1956…7d06 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$2 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$2
other 12% −$1
sports 8% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.8% -8.8% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 58% 0% -8.8%
all 31 -4.1% -13.2% 65% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.3%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -29.1% 0% -25.9%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage469d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 53¢ 52¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 20 $1 $0 +5%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 24 $1 $0 -12%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 23 $11 $0 +0%
Trump x Putin talk by Friday? Apr 20 $10 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 21 $2 −$1 -65%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 19 $12 $0 +1%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 7-14? Mar 14 $2 −$2 -73%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lille win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 13 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $37 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $7 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $31 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $38 8h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 19h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $13 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $24 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $36 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 31h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $11 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $26 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $35 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $35 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $12 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $8 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $18 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.53 · official $35.53 (match) · 93 history records