Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x1955…b54c world 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$589 (+2%) realized +$581 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$2,370per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$4,922now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days+$97
14 days+$261
30 days+$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$464
economics 26% +$122
other 10% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.0% -6.8% 100% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 3 +3.8% -6.1% 100% 0% -6.2%
≤90d 5 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -6.7%
all 6 +3.3% -6.5% 100% 0% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 0% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 0% -15.6%
15% -23.6% 0% -23.8%
20% -31.1% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$97 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$4,922
Realized+$581
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)6 / 10
History coverage108d
Avg bet$2,370
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $2,648 $2,651 +$2 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,405 $1,406 +$1 (+0%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $566 $570 +$4 (+1%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $294 $295 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $3,176 +$97 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $3,118 +$164 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $6,259 +$199 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $6,026 +$117 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $105 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $124 7m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 8m
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $0 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1,021 1h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $294 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $2,648 2h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 96¢ $567 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $3,118 14d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $291 14d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $639 14d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $485 14d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $194 14d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $693 14d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $874 14d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $6,259 47d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 98¢ $6,026 71d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $105 93d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $105 93d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 95¢ $100 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,921.75 · official $4,921.75 (match) · 30 history records