Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:00:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x1953…eacc crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+47%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%27W / 14L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)+17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +30.1% +17.7% 66% 66% +27.2%
≤30d 41 +30.1% +17.7% 66% 66% +27.2%
≤90d 41 +30.1% +17.7% 66% 66% +27.2%
all 41 +30.1% +17.7% 66% 66% +27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.7% 66% +27.2%
10% +6.5% 66% +15.0%
15% -3.8% 61% +3.9%
20% -13.2% 54% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses27 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$4 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$10 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records