Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1951…7542 sports 501 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$381 (-1%) realized −$355 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate90%449W / 50L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$95
7 days+$95
14 days−$382
30 days−$382
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$228
other 17% −$625
world 13% +$260
politics 6% −$25
finance 4% +$19
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +6.1% -4.0% 100% 33% -4.2%
≤30d 7 -1.5% -10.9% 86% 29% -21.5%
≤90d 300 -1.0% -10.4% 95% 3% -10.2%
all 499 -0.6% -10.0% 90% 17% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 17% -10.4%
10% -18.7% 13% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 10% -26.8%
20% -33.7% 5% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$47 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$628
Realized−$355
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses449 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)499 / 501
History coverage106d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 499 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? No 97¢ 97¢ $623 $624 +$0 (+0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $32 $5 −$27 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $584 +$15 +3%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $509 +$61 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $511 +$19 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $920 −$507 -55%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $181 +$11 +6%
Chalon/Saone vs. Nancy May 20 $37 +$1 +2%
Lokomotiv Kuban vs. CSKA Moscow May 20 $86 +$2 +2%
BC Zenit vs. Unics Kazan May 19 $15 +$5 +36%
Virtus Bologna vs. Aquila Basket Trento May 19 $86 −$86 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Gaston vs Khachanov May 19 $173 +$2 +1%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Lisa Zaar vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 19 $169 $0 +0%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shenzhen Leopards May 18 $118 +$3 +3%
Tunis: Tristan Boyer vs Inaki Montes May 15 $163 +$6 +4%
Will Dalian Yingbo FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $105 $0 +0%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Beijing Ducks May 15 $333 +$25 +7%
CSKA Moscow vs. Lokomotiv Kuban May 14 $120 +$20 +17%
Granada vs. Barcelona May 13 $213 +$23 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $695 on April 23? Apr 23 $784 +$15 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $1,505 +$4 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $1,541 +$74 +5%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 22 $1,044 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $1,395 +$49 +4%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 21 $713 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,651 +$4 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 21 $660 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $626 +$36 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Apr 21 $648 +$2 +0%
FMP vs. BC Vienna Apr 21 $203 +$2 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Ribera vs Kalinina Apr 21 $80 +$1 +1%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Hanne Vandewinkel vs Linda Fruhvirtova Apr 20 $198 +$2 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $1,140 +$24 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 18 $395 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $355 +$10 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? Apr 16 $10 −$3 -29%
Wuning 2: Alexandr Binda vs Charles Broom Apr 16 $579 +$1 +0%
Chemnitz 99 vs. Ratiopharm Ulm Apr 16 $28 $0 +1%
Tallahassee: Garrett Johns vs Hynek Barton Apr 16 $5 $0 +1%
BC Zenit vs. Unics Kazan Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Zizou Bergs Apr 15 $324 +$6 +2%
Oeiras 3: Joel Schwaerzler vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Apr 15 $238 +$2 +1%
Sendai 89ers vs. Akita Northern Happinets Apr 15 $28 $0 +0%
Brave Thunders vs. Chiba Jets Apr 15 $296 +$3 +1%
Wuning 2: Aoran Wang vs Khumoun Sultanov Apr 15 $391 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Noguchi vs Wong Apr 15 $156 +$2 +1%
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-03-17? Apr 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Lys vs Badosa Apr 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Moeller vs Jarry Apr 15 $110 +$1 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Navone vs Rublev Apr 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $624 36m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $100 37m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $500 38m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $97 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 97¢ $487 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $509 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $511 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $413 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $920 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $11 9d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife SELL Barcelona 96¢ $96 10d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife SELL Barcelona 96¢ $55 10d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY Barcelona 91¢ $91 11d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife SELL Barcelona 96¢ $41 11d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY Barcelona 90¢ $90 11d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 91¢ $100 11d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $90 11d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $10 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $0 12d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $2 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $4 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $4 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 93¢ $1,028 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $1,049 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 96¢ $1,050 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $787 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 94¢ $253 13d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 95¢ $950 13d
Chalon/Saone vs. Nancy SELL Chalon/Saone 100¢ $38 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $628.46 · official $628.46 (match) · 1656 history records