Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x194e…55a8 other 12 markets active 5h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$59 (+16%) realized +$61 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +34.5% +21.6% 100% 50% +8.6%
≤30d 6 +34.5% +21.6% 100% 50% +8.6%
≤90d 6 +34.5% +21.6% 100% 50% +8.6%
all 6 +34.5% +21.6% 100% 50% +8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +21.6% 50% +8.6%
10% +10.0% 33% -1.8%
15% -0.6% 33% -11.3%
20% -10.4% 17% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)6 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? No 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 51¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $40 +$2 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $81 +$5 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $65 +$1 +1%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$27 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $20 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 39¢ $10 10h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 78¢ $20 11h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 74¢ $57 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $30 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 75¢ $50 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $60 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 27h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.42 · official $80.43 (match) · 25 history records