Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x194e…daf1 world 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$1
other 18% +$3
politics 4% +$1
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 17 +4.5% -5.4% 41% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 18 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 6% -9.3%
all 32 -1.8% -11.2% 44% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 6% -9.2%
10% -19.7% 6% -17.9%
15% -27.4% 6% -25.8%
20% -34.5% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage478d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 25 $31 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $29 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $22 +$1 +4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $30 −$1 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $60 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $63 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 15 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championshi Jun 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Apr 03 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on March 17? Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 16 $13 $0 -1%
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%? Mar 16 $13 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $31 11m
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 52¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $13 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $13 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $30 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $29 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $23 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $23 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $8 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $15 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $22 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $32 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $32 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $32 12d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $32 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $16 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $14 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $29 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 37¢ $7 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 37¢ $6 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 37¢ $16 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $2 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $22 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 38¢ $5 14d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.19 · official $0.00 (match) · 107 history records