Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x194b…2a11 weather 225 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-3%) realized −$21 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%112W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day85.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 90% −$48
sports 10% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 55% -13.1%
≤30d 197 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 55% -13.1%
≤90d 197 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 55% -13.1%
all 197 -9.9% -18.5% 57% 55% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 55% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 40% -21.4%
15% -33.4% 28% -29.0%
20% -39.9% 21% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses112 / 85
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions28
Markets (closed)197 / 225
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day85.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 197 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? No 75¢ 77¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? No 81¢ 86¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? No 70¢ 70¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? No 86¢ 72¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 15? No 84¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? No 67¢ 78¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? No 64¢ 60¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? No 75¢ 72¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? No 81¢ 67¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? No 89¢ 50¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 15? Yes 22¢ 92¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+320%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? No 69¢ 57¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? No 68¢ 72¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? No 65¢ 46¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-30%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Yes 52¢ 72¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? No 74¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? No 81¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? No 53¢ 59¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Yes 51¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? No 69¢ 66¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? No 50¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$7 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 +$6 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$7 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$6 +52%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +212%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$7 +54%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$4 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$4 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $15 +$3 +17%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $6 +$6 +90%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 14 $13 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$4 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$6 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 53m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 65¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 53¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 83¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 80¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 50¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 70¢ $1 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.83 · official $124.83 (match) · 609 history records