trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -35.3% | -41.5% | 50% | 50% | -25.6% |
| ≤90d | 13 | +8.8% | -1.6% | 62% | 46% | +5.9% |
| all | 18 | +3.7% | -6.1% | 61% | 44% | +1.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -6.1% | 44% | +1.8% |
| 10% | -15.1% | 39% | -8.0% |
| 15% | -23.3% | 28% | -16.9% |
| 20% | -30.8% | 22% | -25.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? | Yes | 56¢ | 56¢ | $40 | $40 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | No | 45¢ | 44¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Yes | 63¢ | 40¢ | $40 | $26 | −$14 (-36%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 11¢ | $30 | $21 | −$9 (-30%) |
| US strike on Mexico by December 31? | Yes | 17¢ | 19¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+12%) |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? | Yes | 18¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | Jun 18 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Jun 15 | $60 | +$15 | +25% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 14 | $30 | +$10 | +34% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will Alex Smalley win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 18 | $30 | +$6 | +20% |
| Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 18 | $31 | +$73 | +239% |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? | May 17 | $31 | −$27 | -86% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? | Apr 24 | $50 | +$4 | +8% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | Apr 24 | $20 | −$18 | -88% |
| Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Apr 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 13 | $25 | +$31 | +122% |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? | Apr 11 | $20 | +$28 | +140% |
| Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? | Apr 07 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 22 | $50 | +$29 | +59% |
| Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen | Mar 19 | $50 | −$26 | -51% |
| Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $40 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 16 | $30 | +$13 | +43% |
| Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | Mar 12 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |