Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1945…5d3a other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$146 (-21%) realized −$145 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$0
14 days−$82
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$58
crypto 22% −$98
sports 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.7% -10.2% 60% 60% -9.3%
≤30d 30 -29.7% -36.4% 37% 33% -29.4%
≤90d 30 -29.7% -36.4% 37% 33% -29.4%
all 30 -29.7% -36.4% 37% 33% -29.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 33% -29.4%
10% -42.5% 27% -36.1%
15% -48.0% 27% -42.3%
20% -53.1% 20% -48.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$145
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage16d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $44 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $26 +$18 +68%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $28 +$4 +14%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $13 +$15 +114%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -86%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $32 +$15 +46%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$15 +289%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $12 +$8 +68%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$7 +55%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 +$34 +243%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $150 −$98 -66%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $146 +$6 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $44 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $26 17h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $28 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 43h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $13 43h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 8d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $20 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 9d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 12d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 12d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 12d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 13d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 13d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.23 · official $42.23 (match) · 66 history records