Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1943…1561 sports 467 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (93 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,601 (-4%) realized −$14,307 · open −$294
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%252W / 212L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$880per market
Trades / day93.4pace
Fees−$3,750est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$5,756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$35,477
other 0% −$176
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (93 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -5.2% -14.2% 62% 41% -13.6%
≤30d 464 -13.7% -21.9% 54% 38% -18.3%
≤90d 464 -13.7% -21.9% 54% 38% -18.3%
all 464 -13.7% -21.9% 54% 38% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 38% -18.3%
10% -29.4% 27% -26.1%
15% ← realistic here -36.2% 18% -33.3%
20% -42.5% 15% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,050) neutral
Persistence
early -17% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$239 vs −$451 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$5,756
Realized−$14,307
Unrealized−$294
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses252 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$3,750
Open positions3
Markets (closed)464 / 467
History coverage29d
Avg bet$880
Trades / day93.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Vici Gaming 56¢ 100¢ $2,912 $5,154 +$2,243 (+77%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Vici Gaming 99¢ 100¢ $597 $600 +$3 (+1%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Refuser 19¢ 0¢ $298 $1 −$297 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $6,100 +$37 +1%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4,046 +$661 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $797 −$260 -33%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $491 +$16 +3%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $346 $0 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $77 +$223 +291%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $203 +$197 +97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $65 −$63 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $70 −$69 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $1,420 +$4 +0%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $815 −$565 -69%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $506 +$10 +2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $247 +$3 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $788 −$780 -99%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $1,342 +$22 +2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $788 +$1,492 +189%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $2,921 +$546 +19%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 16 $748 +$12 +2%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $432 +$75 +17%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2,998 +$502 +17%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,095 −$345 -32%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2,112 −$1,360 -64%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $245 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$150 +149%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $3,977 +$925 +23%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $125 +$153 +122%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $482 +$63 +13%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $561 −$61 -11%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $243 +$7 +3%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Close Jun 15 $121 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $298 +$3 +1%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +77%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $1,664 +$352 +21%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,000 +$2 +0%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,867 +$633 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $842 −$342 -41%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,000 −$552 -28%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $44 −$43 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,098 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $339 +$66 +20%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $195 +$55 +28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $741 +$92 +12%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $484 +$11 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,513 +$253 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $183 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $21 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 6¢ $22 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 6¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 6¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 6¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 6¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $168 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $22 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $36 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $24 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $38 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $28 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $47 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 96¢ $17 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,755.62 · official $5,755.62 (match) · 3016 history records