Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

19
0x1941…deea
weather · 432 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$777 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$718 · open −$45
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$26
Realized−$718
Unrealized−$45
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses153 / 253
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions25
Markets (closed)406 / 432
History coverage19d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day179.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 25 History 406 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$59
7 days−$834
14 days−$686
30 days−$718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $18 $8 −$10 (-57%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? No 6¢ 5¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? No 82¢ 58¢ $5 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? No 0¢ 1¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+175%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-86%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +158%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$15 +195%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $45 +$10 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 −$8 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $67 −$36 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $98 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $19 −$15 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $17 +$28 +166%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$3 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 +$25 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $306 −$155 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $131 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $59 +$86 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$5 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $370 −$23 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$6 -66%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $62 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$12 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $72 +$17 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $249 +$15 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $239 −$12 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$6 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $61 +$37 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $53 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$763
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $5 7m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 49¢ $22 7m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $44 12m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? SELL No 70¢ $2 12m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? SELL No 75¢ $9 13m
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 6¢ $8 14m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $41 19m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY No 53¢ $4 19m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 20m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 0¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 23m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 34m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 35m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 36m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 38m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 43m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 47m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 51m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 1¢ $0 54m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 55m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 56m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 229 -26.3% -33.3% 30% 21% -15.7%
≤30d 406 -15.0% -23.1% 38% 27% -11.0%
≤90d 406 -15.0% -23.1% 38% 27% -11.0%
all 406 -15.0% -23.1% 38% 27% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover179.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 27% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -30.5% 19% -19.5%
15% -37.2% 15% -27.3%
20% -43.3% 13% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.89 · official $25.89 (match) · 3500 history records