Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:19:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1941…2c1b politics 20 markets active 3h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%2W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$1
other 30% $0
sports 10% $0
world 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 20 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses2 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage104d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $83 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $83 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 15 $83 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $83 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $84 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $84 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $84 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $84 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $84 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $84 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $85 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $85 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $82 2h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $82 12h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 6d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $83 6d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $83 10d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $83 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $83 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $83 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 29d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 29d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 33d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $83 36d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $55 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 37d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $83 38d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $83 38d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $83 43d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 43d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $74 43d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 63d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $62 63d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 63d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $84 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $84 70d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $84 75d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 76d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $84 78d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $84 78d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $84 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records