Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
19 0x1940…0ea1 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$470 (+4%) realized −$642 · open +$1,112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day59.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$7,497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$716
sports 40% −$1,181
world 9% +$360
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.0% +5.9% 80% 80% -36.9%
≤30d 5 +17.0% +5.9% 80% 80% -36.9%
≤90d 5 +17.0% +5.9% 80% 80% -36.9%
all 5 +17.0% +5.9% 80% 80% -36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.9% 80% -36.9%
10% -4.2% 40% -42.9%
15% ← realistic here -13.5% 40% -48.4%
20% -22.0% 20% -53.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$1,495 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7,497
Realized−$642
Unrealized+$1,112
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions50
Markets (closed)5 / 53
History coverage2d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day59.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 50 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 8¢ 69¢ $115 $1,042 +$927 (+803%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $444 $690 +$246 (+56%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes 14¢ 19¢ $302 $400 +$98 (+33%)
Will Killua win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $390 $389 −$0 (-0%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 8¢ 20¢ $115 $306 +$190 (+165%)
Will KROSTALY win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $283 $284 +$2 (+1%)
Will WsLeo win the Masters London MVP No 100¢ 72¢ $363 $262 −$101 (-28%)
Will RieNs win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $234 $235 +$1 (+0%)
Will Rarga win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $234 $235 +$1 (+0%)
Will valyn win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 70¢ $324 $228 −$96 (-30%)
Will brawk win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $213 $212 −$1 (-1%)
Will NoMan win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $208 $209 +$1 (+0%)
Will Nicc win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $204 $205 +$1 (+0%)
Will JitBoyS win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $196 $197 +$1 (+0%)
Will PatMen win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $194 $195 +$1 (+0%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $187 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $115 $167 +$52 (+45%)
Will sociablEE win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $163 $163 −$0 (-0%)
Will jawgemo win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $162 $163 +$1 (+1%)
Will xavi8k win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $147 $148 +$1 (+1%)
Will benjyfishy win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $129 $130 +$1 (+1%)
Will Life win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 99¢ $129 $129 −$0 (-0%)
Will Lysoar win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $124 $125 +$1 (+0%)
Will BABYBAY win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 96¢ $114 $110 −$4 (-4%)
Will yetujey win the Masters London MVP No 99¢ 100¢ $109 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 19 $127 +$16 +12%
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 19 $3,334 −$1,495 -45%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $98 +$11 +11%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 19 $220 +$110 +50%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $247 +$141 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 20¢ $40 1h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 19¢ $30 3h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 6h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 7h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 8h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 8h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 14¢ $28 9h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 11¢ $465 9h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 15¢ $162 9h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 14¢ $220 9h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 11¢ $143 9h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $187 10h
Will yetujey win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $109 10h
Will Leviathan win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $20 13h
Will PROFEK win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $64 14h
Will Chronicle win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $64 14h
Will Jamppi win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $20 14h
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,309 14h
Will Team Vitality win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 93¢ $25 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 90¢ $98 15h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 92¢ $303 15h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 15h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 92¢ $19 15h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 92¢ $1 15h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 95¢ $8 16h
Will WsLeo win the Masters London MVP BUY No 100¢ $249 16h
Will WsLeo win the Masters London MVP BUY No 99¢ $114 16h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 16h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 84¢ $252 18h
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? BUY No 86¢ $71 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,497.37 · official $7,497.69 (match) · 122 history records