Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
19 0x193a…32c1 world 72 markets active 4d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$218 (+8%) realized +$181 · open +$37
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate69%45W / 20L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$2
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% +$332
tech 9% −$128
other 8% +$33
politics 7% +$10
culture 3% −$24
sports 2% −$9
economics 1% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +45.2% +31.4% 50% 50% -68.1%
≤30d 13 +48.5% +34.3% 77% 77% +19.6%
≤90d 57 +10.9% +0.4% 68% 49% -4.1%
all 65 +9.7% -0.8% 69% 48% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 48% -2.8%
10% -10.3% 32% -12.1%
15% -19.0% 28% -20.6%
20% -26.9% 18% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$181
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses45 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)65 / 72
History coverage111d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +170%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $25 −$20 -80%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$6 +138%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$4 +47%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$4 +56%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? Jun 01 $13 +$9 +70%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $135 +$61 +45%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25 −$13 -53%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$16 +154%
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $11 +$6 +54%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 19 $6 +$5 +93%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $73 −$73 -100%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 12 $15 +$14 +93%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 100-124 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3 May 05 $9 −$8 -91%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 05 $33 −$31 -94%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 25 $7 +$1 +11%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 25 $61 −$9 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $78 +$30 +38%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 21 $6 $0 +4%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between Apr 20 $8 −$8 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 17 $44 −$2 -5%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 16 $10 $0 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $36 +$8 +23%
GPT-5.5 released by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $175 −$153 -87%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $21 −$17 -78%
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m? Apr 14 $18 +$3 +19%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 11 $3 +$1 +18%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 8, 2026? Apr 09 $100 +$13 +13%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $20 +$58 +285%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $99 +$144 +144%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 07 $25 −$25 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $80 +$19 +24%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 27? Apr 02 $188 +$32 +17%
Russia military action against Kyiv municipality by March 31? Apr 01 $34 −$22 -64%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $59 +$2 +4%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31? Apr 01 $3 +$1 +43%
BitBoy convicted? Apr 01 $4 +$1 +12%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31 Mar 31 $37 +$21 +56%
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 31 Mar 31 $5 +$1 +22%
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and Mar 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026? Mar 30 $167 +$6 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 3d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E SELL No 86¢ $8 3d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 37¢ $2 5d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No $2 6d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No $3 6d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No $1 6d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? SELL No $3 6d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 19¢ $21 6d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 65¢ $91 7d
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 7d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 75¢ $14 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 8d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 8d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 9d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 9d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 75¢ $5 12d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last E BUY No 77¢ $16 15d
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 19d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 21d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? SELL No 84¢ $19 21d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? BUY No 60¢ $2 21d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? BUY No 32¢ $9 21d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 22d
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 22d
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 70¢ $36 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 70¢ $0 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 51¢ $26 24d
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M SELL No 23¢ $3 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.14 · official $191.14 (match) · 298 history records