Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1936…d262 crypto 512 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$31 (-1%) realized −$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%342W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$31
14 days−$82
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 227 -2.5% -11.8% 67% 67% -12.0%
≤30d 511 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 67% -10.3%
≤90d 511 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 67% -10.3%
all 511 -3.2% -12.4% 67% 67% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 67% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 66% -18.9%
15% -28.4% 51% -26.7%
20% -35.5% 22% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses342 / 169
Open positions1
Markets (closed)511 / 512
History coverage17d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 68¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 161 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.25 · official $3.04 · 904 history records