Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1934…3bf7 world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate44%33W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$7
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$22
other 16% +$1
politics 15% $0
sports 14% +$12
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.1% -7.6% 22% 11% -9.2%
≤30d 31 -3.3% -12.5% 42% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 71 -2.5% -11.8% 44% 4% -9.5%
all 75 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 5% -9.9%
10% -20.1% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.8% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses33 / 42
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage489d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 48¢ $33 $35 +$2 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 87¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $63 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $44 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $121 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $28 −$8 -30%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $3 $0 -12%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $86 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 08 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $79 +$2 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $2 $0 -9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $41 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $64 +$3 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $2 $0 +16%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $63 +$2 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $62 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $5 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $46 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 20 $4 $0 -3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $76 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $2 $0 -4%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 27 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $110 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $38 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $34 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 18 $37 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $33 1h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $33 27h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $33 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 44h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 45h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $2 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $8 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $24 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.28 · official $34.92 · 338 history records