Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
19 0x1930…4ac0 world 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate33%24W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$2
other 23% −$1
politics 15% −$13
sports 12% $0
crypto 5% −$4
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 27 -1.3% -10.7% 37% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 70 -2.3% -11.6% 33% 1% -9.6%
all 72 -3.6% -12.8% 33% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 1% -10.1%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses24 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)72 / 76
History coverage532d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 77¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $9 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $27 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $30 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $38 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 05 $151 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $81 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $55 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $54 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $27 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $27 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $9 −$1 -17%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $12 −$2 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $34 +$4 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $28 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $90 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $63 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $55 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $79 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $28 $0 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $60 −$1 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $79 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $62 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $71 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $27 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $9 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $22 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $5 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $4 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 44¢ $24 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 19h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 21h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $15 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $15 42h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $28 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $26 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $10 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 56¢ $21 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $30 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $15 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $30 5d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $30 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 6d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.13 · official $27.88 · 307 history records