Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:41:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
19 0x192e…d738 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$176 (+12%) realized +$174 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$199
7 days+$363
14 days+$309
30 days+$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$296
sports 47% +$11
crypto 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +47.2% +33.2% 83% 83% +17.2%
≤30d 8 +28.6% +16.3% 75% 75% +10.0%
≤90d 8 +28.6% +16.3% 75% 75% +10.0%
all 8 +28.6% +16.3% 75% 75% +10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.3% 75% +10.0%
10% +5.2% 62% -0.5%
15% -5.0% 62% -10.1%
20% -14.3% 38% -18.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$122 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$174
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage11d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Yes 58¢ 68¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $362 +$154 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $215 +$142 +66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $195 +$43 +22%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $300 −$145 -48%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 21 $153 +$164 +108%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$46 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 8m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $516 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $362 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 70¢ $357 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $215 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $178 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 40¢ $155 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $22 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $300 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $17 27h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 87¢ $317 2d
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 41¢ $153 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 70¢ $148 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.81 · official $11.81 (match) · 18 history records